{
  "note": "Retrospective reconstruction from each version, not forecasts published before these matches. Historical match dates/scores are from the committed PL results. Probabilities use pre-match inputs. Ratings are version-specific; changes between versions are not attributable to one parameter alone.",
  "matches": [
    {
      "date": "2024-04-23",
      "home": "Arsenal FC",
      "away": "Chelsea FC",
      "homeKey": "arsenal",
      "awayKey": "chelsea",
      "season": "2023-24",
      "hg": 5,
      "ag": 0,
      "result": 1,
      "versions": [
        {
          "version": "1.0.0",
          "homeBefore": 1686.4099151429973,
          "awayBefore": 1541.3685464854557,
          "expected": 0.7650040768432874,
          "change": 4.699918463134251,
          "homeAfter": 1691.1098336061316,
          "awayAfter": 1536.6686280223214,
          "multiplier": 1,
          "homeAdjustment": 60,
          "k": 20,
          "lambda": [
            2.5823986006444084,
            0.9591886723987274
          ],
          "probabilities": {
            "home": 0.7227935187933587,
            "draw": 0.15947553622820893,
            "away": 0.11773094497843199
          }
        },
        {
          "version": "2.0.0",
          "homeBefore": 1704.4071307355098,
          "awayBefore": 1558.2529703909804,
          "expected": 0.6987454611198817,
          "change": 6.025090777602367,
          "homeAfter": 1710.4322215131122,
          "awayAfter": 1552.227879613378,
          "multiplier": 1,
          "homeAdjustment": 0,
          "k": 20,
          "lambda": [
            2.58671270771254,
            0.9575889421237227
          ],
          "probabilities": {
            "home": 0.7238237961718451,
            "draw": 0.15904324649763002,
            "away": 0.11713295733052527
          }
        },
        {
          "version": "3.0.0-research",
          "homeBefore": 1786.7570576612163,
          "awayBefore": 1599.5731654225228,
          "expected": 0.7460238300227131,
          "change": 10.159046799091476,
          "homeAfter": 1796.916104460308,
          "awayAfter": 1589.4141186234312,
          "multiplier": 2,
          "homeAdjustment": 0,
          "k": 20,
          "lambda": [
            2.4524029487795866,
            0.836769132362978
          ],
          "probabilities": {
            "home": 0.7286261120220967,
            "draw": 0.1632464794109009,
            "away": 0.10812740856700194
          }
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "date": "2024-04-14",
      "home": "Arsenal FC",
      "away": "Aston Villa FC",
      "homeKey": "arsenal",
      "awayKey": "astonvilla",
      "season": "2023-24",
      "hg": 0,
      "ag": 2,
      "result": 0,
      "versions": [
        {
          "version": "1.0.0",
          "homeBefore": 1694.257081011374,
          "awayBefore": 1589.8489981295395,
          "expected": 0.7203924262168422,
          "change": -14.407848524336844,
          "homeAfter": 1679.8492324870372,
          "awayAfter": 1604.2568466538764,
          "multiplier": 1,
          "homeAdjustment": 60,
          "k": 20,
          "lambda": [
            2.451642801038118,
            0.98339694801743
          ],
          "probabilities": {
            "home": 0.6958886709167744,
            "draw": 0.17137049951064998,
            "away": 0.13274082957257516
          }
        },
        {
          "version": "2.0.0",
          "homeBefore": 1712.4976933968433,
          "awayBefore": 1605.1504280082495,
          "expected": 0.6497500100904782,
          "change": -12.995000201809564,
          "homeAfter": 1699.5026931950338,
          "awayAfter": 1618.145428210059,
          "multiplier": 1,
          "homeAdjustment": 0,
          "k": 20,
          "lambda": [
            2.4624754011838497,
            0.9790709166112752
          ],
          "probabilities": {
            "home": 0.6986949517466313,
            "draw": 0.17025908524333136,
            "away": 0.13104596301003693
          }
        },
        {
          "version": "3.0.0-research",
          "homeBefore": 1801.51796011875,
          "awayBefore": 1648.2888256111482,
          "expected": 0.7072484667327164,
          "change": -20.004007472419683,
          "homeAfter": 1781.5139526463302,
          "awayAfter": 1668.292833083568,
          "multiplier": 1.4142135623730951,
          "homeAdjustment": 0,
          "k": 20,
          "lambda": [
            2.389594716361314,
            0.8308306426724018
          ],
          "probabilities": {
            "home": 0.7195490776282365,
            "draw": 0.16843330698182538,
            "away": 0.11201761538993894
          }
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "projection": {
    "asOf": "2026-11-02",
    "runs": 10000,
    "seed": 538,
    "clubs": [
      {
        "club": "Arsenal FC",
        "v1Points": 84.5511,
        "v2Points": 85.833,
        "v3Points": 88.0931,
        "v1Title": 0.6648,
        "v2Title": 0.6738,
        "v3Title": 0.6847
      },
      {
        "club": "Chelsea FC",
        "v1Points": 59.1375,
        "v2Points": 59.5145,
        "v3Points": 59.9045,
        "v1Title": 0.0062,
        "v2Title": 0.0049,
        "v3Title": 0.0015
      }
    ],
    "note": "Dated comparison, not current live predictions. Version 3 uses its research data reconciliation and fixture ordering; differences include model changes and Monte Carlo noise."
  }
}