{ "elo": { "k": 20, "homeAdvantage": 0, "offseasonRegression": 0.1 }, "auditUrl": "/data/forecast/backtest-2026-11.json", "training": { "from": "2019-20", "to": "2022-23", "matches": 1520, "logLoss": 0.9821582097317783, "brier": 0.5838964624142313, "bins": [ { "n": 152, "p": 0.07122837388035048, "actual": 0.09210526315789473 }, { "n": 685, "p": 0.15922269980285841, "actual": 0.15328467153284672 }, { "n": 1746, "p": 0.24470163801863404, "actual": 0.2531500572737686 }, { "n": 642, "p": 0.35090618406500207, "actual": 0.3411214953271028 }, { "n": 515, "p": 0.44706549658918004, "actual": 0.4601941747572815 }, { "n": 386, "p": 0.5467420345817606, "actual": 0.5181347150259067 }, { "n": 232, "p": 0.6462458767501601, "actual": 0.6422413793103449 }, { "n": 143, "p": 0.7451628294010534, "actual": 0.7272727272727273 }, { "n": 54, "p": 0.83760999996815, "actual": 0.8333333333333334 }, { "n": 5, "p": 0.9150967108614102, "actual": 1 } ] }, "holdout": { "from": "2023-24", "to": "2025-26", "matches": 1140, "logLoss": 0.9838708990663283, "brier": 0.5868348501870362, "bins": [ { "n": 118, "p": 0.06967807391177147, "actual": 0.0423728813559322 }, { "n": 617, "p": 0.16076415609154895, "actual": 0.19448946515397084 }, { "n": 1198, "p": 0.23622911253709877, "actual": 0.24874791318864775 }, { "n": 437, "p": 0.350585559386466, "actual": 0.34096109839816935 }, { "n": 363, "p": 0.4463862033797004, "actual": 0.42699724517906334 }, { "n": 313, "p": 0.5454380033201431, "actual": 0.5271565495207667 }, { "n": 208, "p": 0.6474166768060235, "actual": 0.6105769230769231 }, { "n": 109, "p": 0.7408031515062746, "actual": 0.6513761467889908 }, { "n": 51, "p": 0.8358462535219765, "actual": 0.8627450980392157 }, { "n": 6, "p": 0.9299131021835874, "actual": 1 } ] }, "baseline": { "matches": 1140, "logLoss": 0.9856489246545954, "brier": 0.5882599215147165, "bins": [ { "n": 101, "p": 0.07140736963840352, "actual": 0.039603960396039604 }, { "n": 553, "p": 0.16007106668791746, "actual": 0.17721518987341772 }, { "n": 1294, "p": 0.24044854727675724, "actual": 0.24806800618238023 }, { "n": 447, "p": 0.35092214130074284, "actual": 0.36465324384787473 }, { "n": 382, "p": 0.44946470607235417, "actual": 0.4397905759162304 }, { "n": 288, "p": 0.5464617634914926, "actual": 0.5 }, { "n": 212, "p": 0.6451370903535949, "actual": 0.6509433962264151 }, { "n": 99, "p": 0.741400171063352, "actual": 0.6565656565656566 }, { "n": 39, "p": 0.8312729707032216, "actual": 0.8717948717948718 }, { "n": 5, "p": 0.9204213795394971, "actual": 1 } ], "model": { "beta": 0.9, "weight": 0, "mix": 0, "rho": 0 } }, "parameters": { "beta": 0.6, "weight": 0.5, "mix": 0.5, "rho": 0, "strengthSD": 70, "elo": { "k": 20, "homeAdvantage": 0, "offseasonRegression": 0.1 } }, "notes": [ "Rolling pre-match features; tuning uses 2019\u201323 only. Holdout seasons were not used to choose weights.", "Kneeslide Elo: K=20, home adjustment=0, offseason regression=0.1. Selected with training-only grid search, not ClubElo.", "xG sources change across seasons; missing match xG is not invented.", "Independent Poisson with fitted low-score correction. Team strength uncertainty is calibrated on training seasons and sampled once per simulated season." ], "uncertaintyTraining": [ { "sd": 0, "coverage": 0.7000000000000001, "intervalScore80": 28.053124999999998, "rows": [ { "season": "2019-20", "cutoff": 0, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 30, "meanIntervalWidth": 19.5, "pointsMAE": 7.666900000000001, "pointsRMSE": 8.884923864333336, "interval80Coverage": 0.75, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2019-20", "cutoff": 90, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 24.45, "meanIntervalWidth": 16.95, "pointsMAE": 5.765550000000001, "pointsRMSE": 7.061765443216023, "interval80Coverage": 0.75, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2019-20", "cutoff": 190, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 17.55, "meanIntervalWidth": 13.55, "pointsMAE": 3.8256, "pointsRMSE": 4.950521641706054, "interval80Coverage": 0.8, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2019-20", "cutoff": 280, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 13.5, "meanIntervalWidth": 10, "pointsMAE": 3.5284749999999994, "pointsRMSE": 4.154352878307282, "interval80Coverage": 0.9, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2020-21", "cutoff": 0, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 45.5, "meanIntervalWidth": 19.5, "pointsMAE": 9.61055, "pointsRMSE": 11.79252537627119, "interval80Coverage": 0.6, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2020-21", "cutoff": 90, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 29.75, "meanIntervalWidth": 16.75, "pointsMAE": 6.678775, "pointsRMSE": 8.102909126511294, "interval80Coverage": 0.6, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2020-21", "cutoff": 190, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 17.9, "meanIntervalWidth": 13.4, "pointsMAE": 4.069099999999999, "pointsRMSE": 5.060678079566018, "interval80Coverage": 0.85, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2020-21", "cutoff": 280, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 17, "meanIntervalWidth": 10, "pointsMAE": 3.330975, "pointsRMSE": 4.445471393733177, "interval80Coverage": 0.8, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2021-22", "cutoff": 0, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 36.4, "meanIntervalWidth": 19.4, "pointsMAE": 8.157775, "pointsRMSE": 9.758062583704822, "interval80Coverage": 0.65, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2021-22", "cutoff": 90, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 30.45, "meanIntervalWidth": 16.95, "pointsMAE": 6.524874999999997, "pointsRMSE": 8.099856945496013, "interval80Coverage": 0.7, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2021-22", "cutoff": 190, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 23.4, "meanIntervalWidth": 13.4, "pointsMAE": 4.406625, "pointsRMSE": 6.300587955699054, "interval80Coverage": 0.85, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2021-22", "cutoff": 280, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 18.3, "meanIntervalWidth": 9.8, "pointsMAE": 4.495824999999998, "pointsRMSE": 5.0638085703845475, "interval80Coverage": 0.55, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2022-23", "cutoff": 0, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 66.45, "meanIntervalWidth": 19.45, "pointsMAE": 12.667975000000002, "pointsRMSE": 14.49165724002952, "interval80Coverage": 0.3, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2022-23", "cutoff": 90, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 43.7, "meanIntervalWidth": 16.7, "pointsMAE": 9.220525, "pointsRMSE": 10.939348541503739, "interval80Coverage": 0.55, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2022-23", "cutoff": 190, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 20.15, "meanIntervalWidth": 13.65, "pointsMAE": 4.358000000000001, "pointsRMSE": 5.776360934879329, "interval80Coverage": 0.85, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2022-23", "cutoff": 280, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 14.35, "meanIntervalWidth": 9.85, "pointsMAE": 3.4586499999999996, "pointsRMSE": 4.079146957391949, "interval80Coverage": 0.7, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." } ] }, { "sd": 35, "coverage": 0.7312500000000001, "intervalScore80": 27.284375, "rows": [ { "season": "2019-20", "cutoff": 0, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 30.4, "meanIntervalWidth": 21.4, "pointsMAE": 7.703825000000002, "pointsRMSE": 8.924496989326625, "interval80Coverage": 0.8, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2019-20", "cutoff": 90, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 24.45, "meanIntervalWidth": 17.95, "pointsMAE": 5.740925, "pointsRMSE": 7.049641165513321, "interval80Coverage": 0.75, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2019-20", "cutoff": 190, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 17.3, "meanIntervalWidth": 14.3, "pointsMAE": 3.8293749999999998, "pointsRMSE": 4.941732131803584, "interval80Coverage": 0.8, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2019-20", "cutoff": 280, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 13.65, "meanIntervalWidth": 10.15, "pointsMAE": 3.509975, "pointsRMSE": 4.142665743515882, "interval80Coverage": 0.9, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2020-21", "cutoff": 0, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 43.8, "meanIntervalWidth": 21.3, "pointsMAE": 9.616175, "pointsRMSE": 11.780483844583806, "interval80Coverage": 0.65, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2020-21", "cutoff": 90, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 28.05, "meanIntervalWidth": 18.05, "pointsMAE": 6.6762, "pointsRMSE": 8.103175683026995, "interval80Coverage": 0.65, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2020-21", "cutoff": 190, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 18.85, "meanIntervalWidth": 14.35, "pointsMAE": 4.093675, "pointsRMSE": 5.1044109001431295, "interval80Coverage": 0.85, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2020-21", "cutoff": 280, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 16.7, "meanIntervalWidth": 10.2, "pointsMAE": 3.312324999999999, "pointsRMSE": 4.428424859642533, "interval80Coverage": 0.8, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2021-22", "cutoff": 0, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 35.3, "meanIntervalWidth": 21.3, "pointsMAE": 8.189000000000002, "pointsRMSE": 9.796198103090811, "interval80Coverage": 0.65, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2021-22", "cutoff": 90, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 29.1, "meanIntervalWidth": 18.1, "pointsMAE": 6.519074999999999, "pointsRMSE": 8.085898625848582, "interval80Coverage": 0.7, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2021-22", "cutoff": 190, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 23.7, "meanIntervalWidth": 14.2, "pointsMAE": 4.442749999999999, "pointsRMSE": 6.323416293824091, "interval80Coverage": 0.85, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2021-22", "cutoff": 280, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 17.15, "meanIntervalWidth": 10.15, "pointsMAE": 4.485925, "pointsRMSE": 5.060561205291365, "interval80Coverage": 0.65, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2022-23", "cutoff": 0, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 61.4, "meanIntervalWidth": 21.4, "pointsMAE": 12.670850000000002, "pointsRMSE": 14.473976785942417, "interval80Coverage": 0.45, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2022-23", "cutoff": 90, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 42.5, "meanIntervalWidth": 18, "pointsMAE": 9.243675, "pointsRMSE": 10.958185385249696, "interval80Coverage": 0.55, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2022-23", "cutoff": 190, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 20.85, "meanIntervalWidth": 14.35, "pointsMAE": 4.367925000000001, "pointsRMSE": 5.797659050211559, "interval80Coverage": 0.85, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2022-23", "cutoff": 280, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 13.35, "meanIntervalWidth": 10.35, "pointsMAE": 3.453025000000001, "pointsRMSE": 4.071340843321768, "interval80Coverage": 0.8, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." } ] }, { "sd": 70, "coverage": 0.8156249999999999, "intervalScore80": 26.134375, "rows": [ { "season": "2019-20", "cutoff": 0, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 32.25, "meanIntervalWidth": 26.25, "pointsMAE": 7.6458499999999985, "pointsRMSE": 8.928882543465336, "interval80Coverage": 0.9, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2019-20", "cutoff": 90, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 24.45, "meanIntervalWidth": 21.45, "pointsMAE": 5.737275, "pointsRMSE": 7.059942732593516, "interval80Coverage": 0.9, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2019-20", "cutoff": 190, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 17.1, "meanIntervalWidth": 16.1, "pointsMAE": 3.806425, "pointsRMSE": 4.934644666792129, "interval80Coverage": 0.95, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2019-20", "cutoff": 280, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 13.9, "meanIntervalWidth": 10.9, "pointsMAE": 3.51845, "pointsRMSE": 4.152915632420192, "interval80Coverage": 0.9, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2020-21", "cutoff": 0, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 41.05, "meanIntervalWidth": 26.05, "pointsMAE": 9.659749999999999, "pointsRMSE": 11.771629317983129, "interval80Coverage": 0.8, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2020-21", "cutoff": 90, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 26.05, "meanIntervalWidth": 21.55, "pointsMAE": 6.660024999999999, "pointsRMSE": 8.080962123256118, "interval80Coverage": 0.8, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2020-21", "cutoff": 190, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 19.5, "meanIntervalWidth": 16, "pointsMAE": 4.10245, "pointsRMSE": 5.11080512248315, "interval80Coverage": 0.85, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2020-21", "cutoff": 280, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 16.95, "meanIntervalWidth": 10.95, "pointsMAE": 3.3178250000000005, "pointsRMSE": 4.442387059622338, "interval80Coverage": 0.8, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2021-22", "cutoff": 0, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 33.45, "meanIntervalWidth": 25.95, "pointsMAE": 8.31275, "pointsRMSE": 9.930125267336763, "interval80Coverage": 0.85, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2021-22", "cutoff": 90, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 28.4, "meanIntervalWidth": 21.4, "pointsMAE": 6.5455, "pointsRMSE": 8.103056986409513, "interval80Coverage": 0.8, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2021-22", "cutoff": 190, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 24.8, "meanIntervalWidth": 15.8, "pointsMAE": 4.4779, "pointsRMSE": 6.362151110277089, "interval80Coverage": 0.85, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2021-22", "cutoff": 280, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 16.7, "meanIntervalWidth": 10.7, "pointsMAE": 4.474550000000001, "pointsRMSE": 5.0427241026056535, "interval80Coverage": 0.65, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2022-23", "cutoff": 0, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 52.45, "meanIntervalWidth": 25.95, "pointsMAE": 12.658224999999998, "pointsRMSE": 14.418624451122236, "interval80Coverage": 0.55, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2022-23", "cutoff": 90, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 37.1, "meanIntervalWidth": 21.6, "pointsMAE": 9.211299999999998, "pointsRMSE": 10.91055584170669, "interval80Coverage": 0.7, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2022-23", "cutoff": 190, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 21.1, "meanIntervalWidth": 16.1, "pointsMAE": 4.42295, "pointsRMSE": 5.831185074665354, "interval80Coverage": 0.9, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2022-23", "cutoff": 280, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 12.9, "meanIntervalWidth": 10.9, "pointsMAE": 3.435674999999999, "pointsRMSE": 4.050763938752787, "interval80Coverage": 0.85, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." } ] }, { "sd": 105, "coverage": 0.8687500000000001, "intervalScore80": 26.374999999999996, "rows": [ { "season": "2019-20", "cutoff": 0, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 35.35, "meanIntervalWidth": 31.85, "pointsMAE": 7.556150000000001, "pointsRMSE": 8.933404248941162, "interval80Coverage": 0.9, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2019-20", "cutoff": 90, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 26.95, "meanIntervalWidth": 25.45, "pointsMAE": 5.7377, "pointsRMSE": 7.0987897507251185, "interval80Coverage": 0.95, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2019-20", "cutoff": 190, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 18.35, "meanIntervalWidth": 18.35, "pointsMAE": 3.7857250000000007, "pointsRMSE": 4.918688002150574, "interval80Coverage": 1, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2019-20", "cutoff": 280, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 14.25, "meanIntervalWidth": 11.75, "pointsMAE": 3.512925, "pointsRMSE": 4.165606911063501, "interval80Coverage": 0.9, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2020-21", "cutoff": 0, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 41.05, "meanIntervalWidth": 31.55, "pointsMAE": 9.658374999999998, "pointsRMSE": 11.733741804620553, "interval80Coverage": 0.85, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2020-21", "cutoff": 90, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 26.7, "meanIntervalWidth": 25.2, "pointsMAE": 6.636874999999999, "pointsRMSE": 8.079235999616548, "interval80Coverage": 0.95, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2020-21", "cutoff": 190, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 19.75, "meanIntervalWidth": 18.25, "pointsMAE": 4.073525000000001, "pointsRMSE": 5.0954247111992546, "interval80Coverage": 0.95, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2020-21", "cutoff": 280, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 17.1, "meanIntervalWidth": 11.6, "pointsMAE": 3.3236499999999993, "pointsRMSE": 4.459496866239508, "interval80Coverage": 0.8, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2021-22", "cutoff": 0, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 35.85, "meanIntervalWidth": 31.85, "pointsMAE": 8.434175, "pointsRMSE": 10.064390348525835, "interval80Coverage": 0.85, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2021-22", "cutoff": 90, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 28.35, "meanIntervalWidth": 25.35, "pointsMAE": 6.643225000000001, "pointsRMSE": 8.187357772047097, "interval80Coverage": 0.9, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2021-22", "cutoff": 190, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 25.5, "meanIntervalWidth": 18, "pointsMAE": 4.514399999999999, "pointsRMSE": 6.361481004844705, "interval80Coverage": 0.9, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2021-22", "cutoff": 280, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 15.15, "meanIntervalWidth": 11.65, "pointsMAE": 4.4705499999999985, "pointsRMSE": 5.033604856362884, "interval80Coverage": 0.75, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2022-23", "cutoff": 0, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 46.25, "meanIntervalWidth": 31.75, "pointsMAE": 12.623000000000001, "pointsRMSE": 14.332458586195182, "interval80Coverage": 0.65, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2022-23", "cutoff": 90, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 35.65, "meanIntervalWidth": 25.65, "pointsMAE": 9.140275, "pointsRMSE": 10.821139598605132, "interval80Coverage": 0.8, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2022-23", "cutoff": 190, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 22.45, "meanIntervalWidth": 18.45, "pointsMAE": 4.4402, "pointsRMSE": 5.813661924725242, "interval80Coverage": 0.9, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2022-23", "cutoff": 280, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 13.3, "meanIntervalWidth": 11.8, "pointsMAE": 3.4264250000000005, "pointsRMSE": 4.0570233191959835, "interval80Coverage": 0.85, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." } ] }, { "sd": 140, "coverage": 0.9062500000000001, "intervalScore80": 27.221874999999997, "rows": [ { "season": "2019-20", "cutoff": 0, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 38.95, "meanIntervalWidth": 36.45, "pointsMAE": 7.538900000000001, "pointsRMSE": 9.029138654932707, "interval80Coverage": 0.9, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2019-20", "cutoff": 90, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 29.25, "meanIntervalWidth": 28.75, "pointsMAE": 5.761500000000001, "pointsRMSE": 7.158813545204261, "interval80Coverage": 0.95, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2019-20", "cutoff": 190, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 20.1, "meanIntervalWidth": 20.1, "pointsMAE": 3.796849999999999, "pointsRMSE": 4.907584764932746, "interval80Coverage": 1, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2019-20", "cutoff": 280, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 14.7, "meanIntervalWidth": 12.7, "pointsMAE": 3.494675, "pointsRMSE": 4.166616737534183, "interval80Coverage": 0.95, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2020-21", "cutoff": 0, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 42.3, "meanIntervalWidth": 36.3, "pointsMAE": 9.650875000000001, "pointsRMSE": 11.682577800404328, "interval80Coverage": 0.9, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2020-21", "cutoff": 90, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 29.25, "meanIntervalWidth": 28.75, "pointsMAE": 6.651499999999999, "pointsRMSE": 8.082438762527064, "interval80Coverage": 0.95, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2020-21", "cutoff": 190, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 21.05, "meanIntervalWidth": 20.05, "pointsMAE": 4.0699000000000005, "pointsRMSE": 5.097461500590269, "interval80Coverage": 0.95, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2020-21", "cutoff": 280, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 16.55, "meanIntervalWidth": 12.55, "pointsMAE": 3.3204000000000002, "pointsRMSE": 4.4553346535361396, "interval80Coverage": 0.8, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2021-22", "cutoff": 0, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 38.05, "meanIntervalWidth": 36.55, "pointsMAE": 8.529549999999999, "pointsRMSE": 10.17782557818712, "interval80Coverage": 0.95, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2021-22", "cutoff": 90, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 29.65, "meanIntervalWidth": 28.65, "pointsMAE": 6.647475000000002, "pointsRMSE": 8.206414036441252, "interval80Coverage": 0.95, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2021-22", "cutoff": 190, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 26, "meanIntervalWidth": 20, "pointsMAE": 4.5508, "pointsRMSE": 6.3720166646831675, "interval80Coverage": 0.9, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2021-22", "cutoff": 280, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 15.3, "meanIntervalWidth": 12.3, "pointsMAE": 4.46955, "pointsRMSE": 5.028455558121202, "interval80Coverage": 0.8, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2022-23", "cutoff": 0, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 42.4, "meanIntervalWidth": 36.4, "pointsMAE": 12.613549999999998, "pointsRMSE": 14.283904095169502, "interval80Coverage": 0.8, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2022-23", "cutoff": 90, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 35.15, "meanIntervalWidth": 28.65, "pointsMAE": 9.10535, "pointsRMSE": 10.7993951184777, "interval80Coverage": 0.9, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2022-23", "cutoff": 190, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 23.2, "meanIntervalWidth": 20.2, "pointsMAE": 4.471775, "pointsRMSE": 5.842048304105333, "interval80Coverage": 0.9, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2022-23", "cutoff": 280, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 13.65, "meanIntervalWidth": 12.65, "pointsMAE": 3.423125, "pointsRMSE": 4.066290823649976, "interval80Coverage": 0.9, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." } ] } ], "seasonBacktest": [ { "season": "2023-24", "cutoff": 0, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 40.1, "meanIntervalWidth": 26.1, "pointsMAE": 10.193274999999996, "pointsRMSE": 11.607259672829757, "interval80Coverage": 0.75, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2023-24", "cutoff": 90, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 29.6, "meanIntervalWidth": 21.1, "pointsMAE": 7.373799999999998, "pointsRMSE": 9.060827562921611, "interval80Coverage": 0.75, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2023-24", "cutoff": 190, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 24.1, "meanIntervalWidth": 16.1, "pointsMAE": 5.111975000000001, "pointsRMSE": 6.557677282201376, "interval80Coverage": 0.7, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2023-24", "cutoff": 280, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 16.1, "meanIntervalWidth": 11.1, "pointsMAE": 4.061249999999999, "pointsRMSE": 4.81251711945007, "interval80Coverage": 0.75, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2024-25", "cutoff": 0, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 47.6, "meanIntervalWidth": 27.1, "pointsMAE": 11.341075000000002, "pointsRMSE": 13.293984842307442, "interval80Coverage": 0.7, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2024-25", "cutoff": 90, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 36.85, "meanIntervalWidth": 21.85, "pointsMAE": 8.786775, "pointsRMSE": 10.286330638886737, "interval80Coverage": 0.7, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2024-25", "cutoff": 190, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 20.9, "meanIntervalWidth": 16.4, "pointsMAE": 5.76115, "pointsRMSE": 6.73515496295371, "interval80Coverage": 0.8, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2024-25", "cutoff": 280, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 15.35, "meanIntervalWidth": 10.85, "pointsMAE": 3.7353250000000005, "pointsRMSE": 4.454879410545251, "interval80Coverage": 0.8, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2025-26", "cutoff": 0, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 44.9, "meanIntervalWidth": 26.9, "pointsMAE": 9.658375000000001, "pointsRMSE": 12.106567289595345, "interval80Coverage": 0.75, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2025-26", "cutoff": 90, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 26.5, "meanIntervalWidth": 22, "pointsMAE": 7.450750000000001, "pointsRMSE": 8.505356770882688, "interval80Coverage": 0.8, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2025-26", "cutoff": 190, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 19.75, "meanIntervalWidth": 16.25, "pointsMAE": 5.190974999999999, "pointsRMSE": 6.3709309258930125, "interval80Coverage": 0.85, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." }, { "season": "2025-26", "cutoff": 280, "runs": 2000, "intervalScore80": 13.2, "meanIntervalWidth": 11.2, "pointsMAE": 3.6062, "pointsRMSE": 4.2231823516158995, "interval80Coverage": 0.95, "note": "Sporting points before deductions; sampled team strength. Repeated cutoffs are correlated; only three audit seasons, not proof of full calibration." } ], "seasonSummary": { "pointsMAE": 6.855910416666667, "interval80Coverage": 0.7749999999999999, "intervalScore80": 27.912499999999998, "cutoffs": [ 0, 90, 190, 280 ], "runs": 2000 }, "originalHoldout": { "matches": 1140, "logLoss": 0.9840628818469237, "brier": 0.5867663451052402 } }